Hi Bob - quality stuff on your Substack, you even provided a model for this one! Interestingly we seem to share a similar background albeit I'm 'a bit more experienced' so to speak. But I worked at Wells (now Allspring) on the buy-side in Indy and NYC and covered the payments and fintech, business services space for their growth funds. I'm just getting started on Substack, likely won't be doing voluminous posting but we'll see. Look forward to seeing more of your insights.
Good stuff. I studied FLYW a few years back but haven’t revisited since the big drop earlier this year. Would be interested in your full analysis. BILL does seem reasonable, especially with a potential buyout on the table. Haven’t been able to talk myself into it yet.
Flywire is my biggest 'strategic' position by far, that said I don't have a ton of positions. Second largest is PAYO after earnings, and I've been in and out of BILL quite a bit and am in now. I have some FOUR and some GPN post their earnings (we never learn do we). And then a little bit of PAY. Of the lot, FLYW has the surest growth path for the medium term, alongside being mispriced. I am comfortable that they are through the worst in the visa trends, and in any case if you do the math the US x-border exposure is 11.5% or so in '25 and I have them beating cons by a lot even with continued pressure in the US into 2026. The mix of the growthy parts has just increased - a lot, but market continues to focus on sub 10% of the revs in '26. Also think the Sertifi synergies are not in numbers and they could be huge over time. CFO sandbagged the initial '26 outlook (MSD applies mostly to US but that would imply a 45% haircut to that segment (using 5%) which is just BS). Fair chance first yr student rebound in the US next year as they are down 30% in 2 years. PAYO is just too cheap and misunderstood, I'll leave it at that. I'll likely publish on FLYW at some point.
Hi Bob - quality stuff on your Substack, you even provided a model for this one! Interestingly we seem to share a similar background albeit I'm 'a bit more experienced' so to speak. But I worked at Wells (now Allspring) on the buy-side in Indy and NYC and covered the payments and fintech, business services space for their growth funds. I'm just getting started on Substack, likely won't be doing voluminous posting but we'll see. Look forward to seeing more of your insights.
Good stuff. I studied FLYW a few years back but haven’t revisited since the big drop earlier this year. Would be interested in your full analysis. BILL does seem reasonable, especially with a potential buyout on the table. Haven’t been able to talk myself into it yet.
Thanks Kevin, appreciate the positive feedback. Any payments/fintech names you’re particularly interested in at the moment?
Flywire is my biggest 'strategic' position by far, that said I don't have a ton of positions. Second largest is PAYO after earnings, and I've been in and out of BILL quite a bit and am in now. I have some FOUR and some GPN post their earnings (we never learn do we). And then a little bit of PAY. Of the lot, FLYW has the surest growth path for the medium term, alongside being mispriced. I am comfortable that they are through the worst in the visa trends, and in any case if you do the math the US x-border exposure is 11.5% or so in '25 and I have them beating cons by a lot even with continued pressure in the US into 2026. The mix of the growthy parts has just increased - a lot, but market continues to focus on sub 10% of the revs in '26. Also think the Sertifi synergies are not in numbers and they could be huge over time. CFO sandbagged the initial '26 outlook (MSD applies mostly to US but that would imply a 45% haircut to that segment (using 5%) which is just BS). Fair chance first yr student rebound in the US next year as they are down 30% in 2 years. PAYO is just too cheap and misunderstood, I'll leave it at that. I'll likely publish on FLYW at some point.