Payments and FinTech in 2026
My top picks and predictions
With 2025 officially in the books, I thought it’d be fun to recap the past year in Payments and FinTech, provide commentary on select companies, including my view of what counts as bullish and bearish developments moving forward, and conclude with my top picks for 2026 (spoiler alert, they’re Block and Global Payments) and some predictions for the new year.
2025: A Brief Review
Potentially disruptive technologies take center stage
Although they have existed for several years, AI and digital currencies emerged as legitimate payment enablers and instruments in 2025. Leading commerce platforms, including Shopify, Toast, and Block, further integrated AI into their products, to power decision-making for consumers and small businesses, and operations, to reduce costs, improve service, and accelerate product development. Rules of the road were established for agentic commerce (fully autonomous agents making online purchases), with most major Payments companies developing supporting services, and major LLMs, including OpenAI, striking deals with digital wallets, acquirers, and merchants to bring it mainstream. With the passage of the GENIUS Act, which provides a regulatory framework for stablecoins, new use cases are gaining legitimacy, including cross-border payments, among others. And let us not forget Square’s efforts to enable Bitcoin payments at its millions of merchants. While largely conceptual today, the long-term impact of agentic commerce, stablecoins, and Bitcoin payments on traditional financial infrastructure and payment networks remains a major unknown, and one that everyone will monitor closely in 2026.
The last deal stock falls, and two others swap assets
In the first half of 2019, Fiserv, FIS and Global Payments spent $78 billion to acquire First Data, Worldpay and Total System Services (TSYS), respectively, mostly with stock. The combined market cap of the three ‘deal stocks’ immediately after the acquisitions were announced was $165 billion. Following Fiserv’s spectacular blowup in 2025 (down 67%), their combined market cap is now $90 billion, a 45% decline:
At the time of the acquisitions, the market questioned whether combining bank technology with merchant acquiring, as each deal did, was strategically sound. In retrospect, the answer is very likely no. Last April, Global Payments and FIS announced they were effectively swapping assets to correct their mistakes: Global Payments would send TSYS’ issuer processing business and cash to FIS and GTCR, a private equity firm that owns 55% of Worldpay, in exchange for Worldpay. After the deals close, Global Payments will focus exclusively on merchant acquiring, as it did before the TSYS acquisition, and FIS solely on bank technology, as it did before the Worldpay acquisition. Time will tell if these moves are too little, too late.
Lending-centric models outperform
An improved regulatory environment, steepening yield curve, strong loan demand (more below), and stable loss rates drove significant outperformance for shares of lending-centric Payments and FinTech companies during 2025. Of the top seven performers, five were lending-centric: Dave, SoFi, Sezzle, American Express and Affirm:
FinTech lending accelerates
Through the first nine months of 2025, BNPL volume increased 22%, with growth reaching 26% in Q3. With added contribution from short-term liquidity products, total FinTech lending volume reached $78 billion during Q3, up more than 32% versus the prior year:
Key IPOs fall flat
Chime and Klarna debuted to public markets in 2025. Although both priced above the high-end of their initial ranges and popped the first day of trading, both currently trade below their offer price:
Despite over $21 billion of market cap between the two, Chime and Klarna both reported GAAP operating losses during the most recent quarter, something the market does not appear fully on board with.
Multiples contract…bigly
Price-to-earnings multiples fell broadly across Payments and FinTech, with an average decline of 16% and significant contraction for Fiserv (-60%), Global Payments (-35%), PayPal (-42%), Shift4 Payments (-58%), Block (-44%) and Toast (-35%). Only American Express (+9%) and Shopify (+24%) saw multiples expand. Despite the declines and, in some cases, low absolute levels, all companies except Fiserv are expected to grow EPS by at least 9% in fiscal 2026, suggesting these companies are not dead yet, as some would like to believe.
Company Commentary
Below are the companies I follow most closely. Although you may see other names mentioned in this report, these are the ones I am going to comment on and consider for my top picks:
American Express: Time for a breather
After bottoming at 12x in October 2023, American Express’ earnings multiple has expanded to more than 21x currently, a massive re-rating that I believe has largely run its course. Yes, the company’s affluent customer base remains in good shape, and recent credit performance has been excellent. Still, American Express continues to tread water in the U.S. credit market, failing to gain share over the last two years as growth lags key competitors in the premium consumer category and U.S. small business spending remains barely positive. Rewards costs continue to rise but remain below key competitors, suggesting more generous spending may be necessary.
Bullish Developments: Further improvement in the U.S. SMB market (U.S. SME billed business for American Express was up 4% in the last quarter), where American Express has a significant presence, U.S. billed business growth above the U.S. credit card market, and stable credit loss rates (the company’s net write-off rate has consistently been best-in-class and the spread between it and the average charge-off rate for its issuing peers has been higher than pre-pandemic).
Bearish Developments: U.S. billed business growth below the U.S. credit card market, discount revenue growth at 6% or below, an increase in the net write-off rate or a narrowing of the gap with the average charge-off rate for its issuing peers, and larger-than-expected increases in rewards costs as a percentage of billed business.
Most Important KPIs: U.S. billed business, discount revenue and net write-off rates.
Adyen: Settling into a more reasonable valuation
Despite failing to meet its goal of accelerating net revenue growth during 2025 (the company now expects constant currency net revenue of about 21% for the full year versus its prior guidance for a slight acceleration versus 2024, which was in the 22-23% range), shares of Adyen were little changed for the year. Adyen’s combination of organic growth (low-to-mid-20% net revenue growth through 2026) and profitability (EBITDA margin above 50% in 2026) remains among the best in Payments, and with the steady decline in the company’s valuation multiple, shares look much more reasonable today and worth serious consideration with any measurable pullback.
Bullish Developments: Constant-currency net revenue growth at-or-above 22% in 2026, expanding take rates for Platforms, suggesting Adyen is winning more attractive smaller vertical software customers and relying less on eBay, and slowing headcount growth, indicating the potential for more significant margin expansion over the near-term.
Bearish Developments: Constant-currency net revenue growth below 20%, more robust headcount growth that limits margin expansion over the near-term, and slowing growth in Platforms and Unified Commerce, which are viewed as the company’s primary growth drivers over the near-to-medium-term.
Most Important KPIs: Constant-currency net revenue growth, the number of Unified Commerce terminals and active business customers on Platforms.
Block: Back to square one
Block’s uneven year began with a guidance cut but ended on a high note, with the company back on offense and providing optimistic medium-term financial targets at its November Investor Day. In between, product velocity increased, Square resumed U.S. share gains, Cash App accelerated lending, and Block joined the S&P 500. Still, the stock finished down 23% for the year and trades at about 20x Block’s guidance for $3.20 of EPS in 2026—a compelling valuation based on sustainable top-line growth of mid-teens or better.
Bullish Developments: Accelerating Square volume growth and further narrowing of the gap in food and beverage volume growth with Toast, stable loss rates on Block’s lending products (Square Capital loans, BNPL, and Cash App Borrow), and sustained attractive Cash App commerce volume growth (+17% during Q3).
Bearish Developments: Square’s gross profit growth trailing volume growth materially, increasing loss rates on lending products, and stalled Cash App monthly actives.
Most Important KPIs: Square GPV and Cash App commerce volume.
BILL Holdings: On the block
After investments by activists Elliott Management and Starboard Value earlier in the year, media reports in November indicated BILL was considering a sale. While nothing has materialized yet, there is strong precedent suggesting BILL will demand a healthy premium if it decides to sell.
Bullish Developments: Absent a sale, stronger volume growth from an improving small business environment and traction with its embedded partnership strategy, improving monetization through the adoption of BILL’s ad valorem products (only about 15% penetrated currently), core revenue growth, which excludes interest on client funds, at-or-above the high-end of its 12-15% guidance range for fiscal 2026 (+14% in fiscal Q1), and a more rapid decline in stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue (BILL is approximately 5 points above its peers on a TTM basis).
Bearish Developments: Core revenue growth at the low-end of its 12-15% guidance range for fiscal 2026, failure of new embedded partnerships to create volume momentum, persistent GAAP operating losses, and inability to materially increase adoption of its ad valorem products.
Most Important KPIs: Core revenue growth, total payment volume (TPV) and net take rate, which equals core revenue divided by TPV.
Fiserv: The gap year
After crashing and burning in 2025, 2026 is likely to be a transitional year leading to 2027, when Fiserv expects to achieve its new growth algorithm of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth. Estimates may still be too high: I see $8 as a reasonable 2026 EPS baseline (a mid-single-digit decline from the 2025 low-end) versus current consensus of $8.37. Valuation is cheap (about 8x 2026E EPS), but investors are likely not rushing to buy this name amid so many unresolved issues, including if platform consolidations will result in the significant loss of core banking customers.
Bullish Developments: New management regains trust by meeting near-term commitments (low single-digit organic revenue growth and a modest decline in EPS during 2026), Clover volume growth improves, and Banking returns to positive organic revenue growth in Financial Solutions.
Bearish Developments: A further reset of the financial baseline (at or below my $8 estimate), slowing Clover volume growth, and ongoing organic revenue declines for Banking in Financial Solutions.
Most Important KPIs: Clover volume and revenue growth, and organic revenue growth for Banking in the Financial Solutions segment.
Global Payments: It’s showtime!
After promising to pare complexity and streamline its operating model, investors were rightfully surprised by Global Payments’ decision to acquire Worldpay while simultaneously shedding its Issuer Solutions business. Despite bouncing off the post-announcement lows, shares of Global Payments declined 30% during 2025 and sit at an absurd valuation of only 5.7x 2026E EPS. With the Worldpay deal set to close in Q1 2026, Global Payments will have its chance to prove the merits of the acquisition: significant scale, diversification, a global footprint, and extensive capabilities combining to accelerate organic revenue growth and produce about $5 billion of annual free cash flow beginning in 2028.
Bullish Developments: Modest improvement in Global Payments’ organic revenue growth rate, which is expected to be approximately 6% during H2 2025, greater detail around Worldpay’s revenue mix and its ability to sustain ‘solidly’ mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, and a firm commitment to pay down debt, balanced with share repurchases.
Bearish Developments: A decline in Global Payments’ organic revenue growth rate, slower growth in the integrated and embedded channel, suggesting pressure from software companies reaching further into payments, and failing to meet cost saving and margin targets for the Worldpay acquisition.
Most Important KPIs: Organic revenue growth.
Jack Henry: Potential for share gain acceleration
Not surprisingly, Jack Henry shares have risen the most (+18%) since Fiserv’s reset at the end of October, as Fiserv indicated on its earnings call and at subsequent investor conferences that core banking platform consolidations (Fiserv is going from 16 to 5) could disrupt client relationships, allowing competitors (including Jack Henry) to exploit the opportunity.
Bullish Developments: Organic revenue growth for fiscal 2026 at the high-end or above its 6-7% range (fiscal Q1 was 8.7%), an acceleration in core customer wins, both in count and total assets (Jack Henry had 47 core wins totaling $19 billion in assets in fiscal 2023, 54 wins totaling $39 billion in fiscal 2024 and 51 wins totaling $53 billion in fiscal 2025), and strong free cash flow conversion (above the midpoint of its 85-100% range).
Bearish Developments: Organic revenue growth for fiscal 2026 at the midpoint or lower of its 6-7% range, no indication the Fiserv disruption is resulting in an acceleration in core customer wins, and lagging margin expansion, excluding termination fees.
Most Important KPIs: Organic revenue growth, adjusted operating margin, which excludes termination fees, and free cash flow conversion.
PayPal: Losing momentum?
Despite positive momentum throughout the year with upward revisions to transaction margin dollar (TM$) and EPS guidance, shares of PayPal fell 31% during 2025 with the company’s multiple contracting more than 40%, falling from 17.4x to the start of the year to 10x currently. Recent commentary suggests 2026 will be more challenging, with investments set to eat up a few points of TM$ growth, putting the company’s goal of reaching high single-digit underlying TM$ growth by 2027 at risk. Still, the company’s high growth, high(er) margin products—BNPL, Pay with Venmo and debit cards—provide the foundation for sustainable underlying TM$ growth of at least 4%, in my opinion. Finally, unlike its ‘legacy’ peers, PayPal’s balance sheet is strong, allowing PayPal the luxury of going heavy on buyback as opposed to paying down debt.
Bullish Developments: Underlying TM$ growth of more than 4% in 2026, branded online checkout TPV growth of 5% or more in 2026, and only a modest decline in debit card and Pay with Venmo TPV growth and sustained BNPL TPV growth of 20% or more. Finally, an indication that investments are driving increased adoption of key products, like core checkout, BNPL and debit cards.
Bearish Developments: Underlying TM$ and branded online checkout TPV growth of 3% or less in 2026, a more meaningful decline in BNPL, Pay with Venmo and debit card TPV growth, and the failure of investments to drive increased adoption of key products.
Most Important KPIs: Branded online checkout TPV growth, underlying TM$ growth and TPV growth for Pay with Venmo, BNPL and debit cards.
Shift4 Payments: I guess that’s why they call it the blues
Shares of Shift4 Payments are down around 50% since announcing the acquisition of Global Blue on February 18, 2025, even though estimates for Shift4, excluding Global Blue, have been stable or rising. The market is clearly displeased. The reasons seem obvious: at $2.5 billion, Global Blue was Shift4’s largest acquisition ever, significantly increasing leverage (3.7x pro forma at close); Global Blue is an established leader in a mature category with limited growth potential; and the payments cross-sell opportunity appears more limited, given that 80% of Global Blue’s $500 billion volume comes from enterprise merchants, where competition is intense and spreads are thin. That said, Shift4 remains an undisputed leader in hotels and stadiums, bolstered by its extensive software integration library that provides a unique edge over competitors. Its SkyTab point-of-sale system performs well in the competitive U.S. restaurant market. Shift4’s international expansion, where secular growth opportunities from the convergence of software and payments are greater, is progressing nicely.
Bullish Developments: Organic revenue growth at-or-above the mid-teens in 2026, an indication Shift4 is successfully cross-selling Global Blue’s dynamic currency conversion solution to its merchant base and/or Shift4 is signing Global Blue merchants for end-to-end processing, and a firm commitment to pay down debt, balanced with share repurchases.
Bearish Developments: Organic revenue growth falling below the mid-teens in 2026, continued M&A activity that keeps leverage uncomfortably high or significant share buyback at the expense of debt paydown, and little-to-no revenue synergies from the Global Blue acquisition.
Most Important KPIs: Organic revenue growth and blended net spread.
Shopify: Priced for perfection
Shopify’s GMV growth accelerated throughout 2025, reaching 30% in Q3, lifting the stock 51% higher for the year despite little change to earnings estimates for 2025 or 2026. While Shopify is the best business in payments outside Visa and Mastercard, in my opinion, it is priced that way, and then some (trading at about 87x 2026E EPS). Inevitably, growth will slow. The question is by how much and what, if any, impact that will have on the stock price. As much as I like the business, it would be nearly impossible for me to consider buying the stock without a healthy pullback.
Bullish Developments: Sustained GMV growth in the high-20% range, more significant expansion in profitability, and an indication of a volume uplift from its partnership with OpenAI, which could create excitement for the stock and attract more small businesses to its platform.
Bearish Developments: GMV growth slowing to the mid-20% range or below and limited margin expansion due to stepped-up investments to chase the agentic commerce opportunity.
Most Important KPIs: GMV and monthly recurring revenue (MRR).
Toast: A great year goes unrewarded, but better for us
I believe 2025 was an excellent year for Toast, perhaps the best in Payments: gross profit growth is expected at 32% (up from the original 24% guidance), and the midpoint of the current adjusted EBITDA guide ($615 million) is up 65% versus 2024 and 18% higher than the initial guide. Volume growth remains strong (up 23.5% in Q3), and early results from international expansion and entry into enterprise restaurants and food and beverage retail appear promising. But growth is expected to slow in 2026, with Toast committed to sustaining gross profit growth ‘over 20%’ with margins ‘flat to slightly up’. This, of course, could prove conservative (see 2025 guidance revisions), but concerns about the law of large numbers will likely persist as the company’s runaway success among independent full-service restaurants catches up to it eventually. With shares falling modestly in 2025, valuation is now much more reasonable.
Bullish Developments: Volume growth remaining above 20%, continued success penetrating international markets, food and beverage retail and enterprise restaurants ($100 million of annual recurring revenue expected collectively for 2025), and more robust margin expansion in 2026 than the ‘flat to slightly up’ guidance implies.
Bearish Developments: Volume growth below 20%, SaaS ARPU growth falling to the low single-digits (from mid-single digits currently), and increased spending to enter new markets that weigh on profitability.
Most Important KPIs: GPV, annual recurring revenue (ARR), SaaS ARPU and the Payments net take rate.
Visa and Mastercard: Steady, but maybe a few more bumps
Visa (+12%) and Mastercard (+9%) achieved respectable gains in 2025 but still trailed the major indices. Little can meaningfully alter Visa and Mastercard’s near-term growth profile: low double-digit organic net revenue growth, modest annual margin expansion, and share buybacks driving mid-teens EPS growth. Last year showed that disruption fears can periodically emerge, pressuring the stocks. While I dismiss worst case scenarios, a plausible bear case is that government-backed real-time payment networks in key international markets, combined with moderate stablecoin adoption for high-value cross-border payments, could marginally slow the companies’ growth. While that doesn’t keep me up at night, it certainly makes further multiple contraction a possibility.
Bullish Developments: Organic net revenue growth at-or-above 12% for Visa and 13% for Mastercard, value-added services revenue growth in the high-teens or better, and an indication that stablecoin payments are failing to gain widespread appeal among consumers or Visa and Mastercard are successfully capturing value by facilitating them. Also, agentic commerce creates more online commerce with a lower average transaction value (as the agent shops around to find the best deals on multiple items from multiple retailers).
Bearish Developments: Organic net revenue growth below 10%, a major acquisition that dilutes EPS and margins, news flow around legislation, regulation or litigation that is viewed as adverse to Visa and Mastercard, and an indication that stablecoins or real-time payment networks are gaining increased traction.
Most Important KPIs: Global payment volume, processed transactions and cross-border volume.
Top Picks for 2026
Block
To me, it’s not complicated: Block’s earnings are real (EPS is now fully burdened by stock-based compensation, which is falling), fundamentals are improving, and growth is accelerating, including high-value volume streams (Square GPV and Cash App commerce volume), all against the backdrop of a reasonable valuation (20x). Despite clumsy commentary about Q4 growth potentially slowing, I am confident Square’s investments in product development and distribution will yield lasting gains and profitable volume growth. For Cash App, highly engaged users are growing faster than headline metrics suggest, providing an excellent foundation for monetization. Although I remain cautious on Block’s lending efforts, early returns appear more than promising. The bottom line: I see a mid-teens topline grower with significant margin expansion potential as materially undervalued at 20x. I think 2026 is the year Block gets back on track, and the stock price catches up to improving fundamentals.
Global Payments
The past is the past. The future is now for Global Payments. With Worldpay closed, the combined business grows organic revenue 6-7% in 2026, achieves cost savings ahead of target, and reduces debt to a more manageable level by the end of the year. The Genius platform gains more traction than expected, and the market grows incrementally more positive about Global’s ability to compete given its commitment to spend significantly on research and development. All this drives Global’s multiple closer to 10x than its current multiple below 6x.
Predictions for 2026
This is not financial advice!
The Fed cuts at least three times
Due to ongoing weakness in the labor market (spurred partially by enterprise adoption of AI, which limits new hiring) and a more dovish new Chair, the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps at least three times in 2025. But gains in the consumer price index will fail to fall anywhere near the Fed’s supposed 2% target. The 10-year spends more days above 4% than below. Mortgage rates barely budge, and housing activity remains subdued. All this contributes to the drumbeat of an “affordability crisis”, strengthening the hand of Democrats in the upcoming mid-term elections.
Democrats win control of at least the House
Based on voter angst over affordability, as well as changing political coalitions, which include greater support for the Democrat party from higher propensity voters, Democrats win control of at least the House in November and possibly the Senate. The illusion of momentum makes the prospect of a Democrat win in the 2028 presidential election appear more likely, casting a shadow over industries perceived to benefit from President Trump’s and Republican policies: banking, consumer finance, and digital currencies.
The consumer hangs tough…with help
Donald Trump’s a showman, and there’s no way he’ll let a consumer-led recession blemish America’s 250th birthday. The Fed, under new leadership, becomes much more accommodative, if necessary; big tax refunds boost Q1 and Q2; and “tariff dividends” are floated at will. The affluent lead, backed by elevated asset prices, and lower-to-moderate income consumers hang tough.
Laggards lead in 2026
Specifically, Fiserv, Shift4 Payments, PayPal, Global Payments and Block all rise more than 15% in 2026. Already weak sentiment was exacerbated by the Fiserv blowup in late October which was compounded by tax loss selling through the end of the year, pushing valuations down to unsustainably low levels. The stocks rebound in 2026.
BILL is acquired for at least $75 per share
I believe a deal gets done, and for at least 5.5x forward revenue, which equates to a per share price of $75 or more.
Shopify falls at least 15%
Although it’s never easy to bet against Shopify, the time for a pullback is now. A moderate deceleration in GMV growth combined with investments to support the company’s ‘100-year’ vision spooks investors, knocking the stock down a peg or two in 2026, but not necessarily to levels that are attractive enough to buy.
PayPal makes an acquisition
I’ll say $3–5 billion, and it will be lending-related. Under CEO Alex Chriss’ leadership, PayPal has focused on organic growth, preferring to utilize existing assets over external opportunities. However, the decision to apply for a banking charter suggests a potential shift in strategy. Venmo monetization remains a key priority, and attracting the right customers is crucial. Competitors like Cash App and Chime aggressively expanded short-term liquidity product originations in 2025, citing them as major customer attractions. PayPal could develop its own product, though that would take time, or acquire a company like Dave. For more aggressive BNPL expansion, Sezzle could be an acquisition target.
Jack Dorsey makes a sizable open market purchase of Block shares
Jack Dorsey believes in what they're building at Block. An open-market purchase of Block shares could go a long way toward instilling the same belief in the rest of the market. I think this could be the year.
Stripe does not IPO
The poor performance of the Chime and Klarna IPOs has no impact. Stripe is clearly in a league of its own. A choppy market in the first half of the year and a potential flood of major tech IPOs in the second half discourage Stripe from making 2026 its year. But maybe next year!
As always, thank you for reading, and if you’ve enjoyed this, please consider sharing, liking, commenting or subscribing. Happy New Year!
Disclosure: Of the companies mentioned in this report, I am long Visa, Global Payments, Shift4 Payments, Fiserv and Block. This report is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. Finally, while I rely on the information in this report to guide my investment decisions, you should not, because I cannot guarantee its accuracy.
Super stuff. Global Payments is at an extraordinarily cheap multiple as you say.
Yes, the Collison wants to delay the IPO as much as humanely possible, and I don't see why they would be forced to do so this year...